The Trump Factor: Are Americans Moving to the UK?
- Sophie Bell
- Aug 26
- 3 min read
Updated: Aug 27
A recent panel discussion at the HNW Advisor London conference explored the emerging trend of American wealth migration, revealing a complex landscape of opportunity and uncertainty for high-net-worth individuals seeking alternatives to the United States.
The Exodus Pattern
The evidence is clear: Americans are leaving the US in unprecedented numbers. According to immigration lawyer Parisa Karaahmet from Fragomen, there was a notable "surge in interest right after the election in the United States in late 2024." This wave differs significantly from previous political migration patterns, with experts noting more sustained interest driven by concerns about long-term social and political change.
Unlike the brief spike following Trump's first election, this migration appears more permanent. As Canadian tax lawyer Jonathan Garbutt observed, "Three professors who study the death of democracies have left the United States and have gone to Canada because they see the checklist of all the things that need to get done to destroy democracy being checked off in rapid order."
The demographic is predominantly coastal, with most inquiries coming from New York, California, and the tri-state area. Alicia Castellanos from Global Taxes notes that many clients are seeking "Plan B" options - not necessarily permanent relocation, but strategic positioning should conditions deteriorate further.
UK as a Destination: Mixed Signals
While the UK remains attractive to American migrants, the picture is nuanced. Property specialist Camilla Dell from Black Brick reports that 23% of her clients over the past 12 months have been American - a dramatic increase from zero US clients when she started in 2007.
However, these Americans aren't necessarily relocating permanently. Instead, they're purchasing "bolt holes" - second homes in prime London locations like Mayfair, Chelsea, and Notting Hill, as well as properties in the Cotswolds and Scotland. Dell explains: "They want something here and they want to spend more time in the UK" rather than full relocation.
The UK property market presents a unique opportunity for American buyers. Dell reveals that central London property prices have shown no growth since 2014, with the market currently "in free fall." Available homes are up 48.2% compared to May 2023, while transaction volumes have dropped 35.8%. For those with means, this represents "a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pick up trophy property in central London at prices that have never been seen before."
Immigration Challenges
The path to UK residency has become increasingly complex following the elimination of the Tier 1 investor visa program three years ago. Americans now face limited options, primarily requiring employer sponsorship, demonstration of extraordinary talent, or ancestral connections to EU countries.
This has created competitive pressure from other jurisdictions. New Zealand's revised residency program, requiring only three weeks' residence over three years for a $3 million investment, has proven particularly attractive to American investors seeking quick residency solutions within 12 months.
Tax Implications and Planning Strategies
The tax landscape for American emigrants remains challenging. As Castellanos emphasises, "They can leave the US, but they cannot leave the US tax system." Americans continue to face worldwide income reporting requirements regardless of residence, creating complex compliance obligations.
However, the UK's new Foreign Income and Gains (FIG) regime offers some advantages. Ben Heaton from BDO explains that the four-year exemption period provides flexibility for investment restructuring and addresses previous complications with entity mismatches between the US and UK tax systems.
Pre-arrival planning has become crucial. Heaton advises reviewing investment structures, particularly avoiding non-US mutual funds that trigger Passive Foreign Investment Company (PFIC) rules, and carefully considering entity structures to optimise tax efficiency across jurisdictions.
Estate Planning Considerations
The wealth transfer implications are significant. Louise Adams from Acorn Capital Advisers notes the "retrospective nature of these new changes" creates uncertainty for succession planning. The complexity increases exponentially for families with multi-jurisdictional interests, requiring sophisticated compliance strategies.
Adams observes that family offices are adopting a "wait and see" approach, with succession planning being "a bit like a kaleidoscope, everything's sort of up in the air and they're slightly waiting for it to settle down."
Market Outlook
Despite political uncertainty, the fundamentals suggest continued American interest in UK property and residency options. The combination of attractive property prices, the four-year FIG exemption, and the UK's stable legal system creates compelling opportunities for those who can navigate the immigration restrictions.
However, experts caution about the ongoing political uncertainty. The potential for future tax changes and the temporary nature of current benefits mean that American migrants must balance immediate opportunities against long-term planning considerations.
The "Trump factor" has clearly accelerated American wealth migration, but the UK's ability to capitalise on this trend will depend on immigration policy reforms and maintaining competitive tax advantages in an increasingly global marketplace for mobile wealth.
This article is based on discussions at the HNW Advisor London conference panel featuring leading experts in international tax, immigration, and property advisory services.
